Security forces
have already deployed heavily in key urban areas, raising fears of a
potentially violent crackdown should the protests gain traction.
Geza, who had
reportedly gone into hiding after police launched a manhunt, recently
resurfaced on social media, urging a “mega demonstration” on Monday.
Wearing
military fatigues, he called for nationwide protests to demand accountability
and systemic change, accusing President Emmerson Mnangagwa of corruption and
mismanagement.
In February,
police declared Geza a person of interest, linking him to charges of
undermining presidential authority.
National police
spokesperson Paul Nyathi urged citizens to remain peaceful, stating that law
enforcement officials would keep a close watch on any unrest.
Despite Geza’s
appeal, political observers are divided over its chances of success. Some
believe public apathy, internal divisions, and unclear objectives could doom
the protests, while others argue that rising frustration over Zimbabwe’s
deepening economic crisis might galvanise participation.
While Geza
claimed backing from opposition figures, including Nelson Chamisa, Tendai Biti,
and Job Sikhala, Chamisa swiftly distanced himself, saying he had “not been
involved in recent dialogues with anyone” and did “not want to be drawn into
events that have nothing to do with me”.
The Zimbabwe
National Liberation War Veterans Association (ZNLWVA) also disassociated itself
from Geza’s efforts, while a rival faction led by Andreas Mathibela is silent
on the issue.
ZNLWVA
spokesperson Cornelius Muwoni said they had only learned of Geza’s plans
through social media.
Security
insiders suggested that while the police had increased patrols and
precautionary measures, the protests appeared to be rooted more in factional
disputes within Zanu PF than in genuine grassroots mobilisation. They said the
demonstrations might be part of a plot by one faction to weaken its rivals
rather than an effort to address public grievances.
“This has
raised suspicions that these demonstrations have no agenda to right the wrongs
of the government, but rather to further the interests of one faction over the
other,” one source said.
With just days
to go, the growing factionalism and political infighting appear to have
sidelined broader public interests.
“Once again,
the people of Zimbabwe are being used as pawns in a political game that has
little to do with their welfare,” said a security source.
Political
analysts are similarly cautious, pointing to Zimbabweans’ history of ignoring
calls for protests.
Stephen Chan,
Professor of World Politics at the University of London, predicted a muted
response due to divisions among war veterans and opposition figures.
However, he
warned that a violent police crackdown could inadvertently rally support behind
Geza.
“If Mnangagwa
and Zanu PF are wise they will simply allow the protests to pass off peacefully
and then comment on how small they were,” Chan said.
“He should
allow Geza to speak and then claim there is freedom of expression in Zimbabwe.
“The weakness
in Zanu PF is giving in to the temptation to overplay its hand. They do tend,
however, to do that,” he added.
Renowned
political analyst Eldred Masunungure noted that while socioeconomic
frustrations are boiling over, Zimbabweans may lack the appetite for mass
action seen in the 1990s.
He added that
protests tend to erupt spontaneously, without giving authorities time to
prepare, unlike Geza’s planned demonstrations.
“Further, and
fundamentally too, an uprising is often not planned as is the case with the
‘March 31 uprising’; usually, uprisings are spontaneous outbursts of public
anger that give little to no time for law enforcement agencies to prepare and
repel,” Masunungure said.
“Perhaps
‘Bombshell’ (Geza) could have been more effective by calling for a stay away
rather than calling on people to take the deadly risk of confronting the
coercive apparatus of the state.”
He said
the opposition parties, now “on life
support”, were too weak to mobilise meaningful resistance.
“War vets on
their own can hardly make a difference. So, whatever faction is involved in the
‘uprising’ can only succeed if it manages to mobilise the broader masses as
happened in November 2017. But I don’t see many Zimbabweans responding to the
Geza call or any other call,” Masunungure said.
Kudzai Mutisi,
a political commentator, echoed this view: “The protests will not take off and
there is no possibility of them being effective because those calling for
protests are disorganised, unpopular, and have no known plan for governing
Zimbabwe better.
“There are no
credible opposition voices in Zimbabwe. The opposition is deeply divided and
disorganised, they cannot mobilise ordinary Zimbabweans to protest against
President Mnangagwa.” Zimbabwe Independent
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