With 8.5 million people facing serious food shortages next year, the discovery that some senior state officials are profiteering by importing 17,000 tonnes of grain at double the world market price is the latest blow to the diminishing credibility of President Emmerson Mnangagwa's government.
Africa Confidential understands that the grain was brought
in from Tanzania – Mnangagwa and President John Magufuli are allies – at a
price of US$600 a tonne; the world price is currently $240 a tonne. An expert in
the regional commodity trade said the only explanation for the inflated price
of the consignment is a 'vast corrupt rake-off'. Now the keys question are,
says the expert, who knew about the deal and who benefited from it.
Senior officials in international organisations have
confirmed the pricing of the deal and say it helps explain the slow response to
the United Nations' call for emergency funding to alleviate Zimbabwe's food
shortfall. It comes as relations between the government and Western states falter
again, after a brief improvement following the ousting of President Robert
Mugabe in November 2017 (AC Vol 58 No 25, A martial mind-set).
Although the main cause of the food crisis is the drought
which has hit most countries in the region, corruption and mismanagement are
making it worse. The World Food Programme (WFP) estimates at least half
Zimbabwe's population of 16.5 million are now 'food insecure', a staggering
failure in a country that was the breadbasket of southern Africa.
Those at risk in Zimbabwe are not far short of the 9.7m
needing food aid in all the 17 countries of the Sahel and West Africa combined.
Nor is Zimbabwe's crisis confined to the rural areas where
5.5m people are food insecure. Another 3m in towns and cities also face chronic
shortages. At the start of the crisis it was estimated that it would cost
$300-500m to feed 7m people; now another $100m will be needed.
Some 800,000 tonnes of wheat and maize may have to be
imported to avert disaster. This doesn't include the grain needed to keep farm
animals alive: up to half of all cattle could die in some areas. In July, some
agency estimates suggested Zimbabwe would need 1.3-1.4m tonnes – 850,000 tonnes
of white maize, 350,000 tonnes of wheat and 80,000 tonnes of soya and cooking
oil. That includes animal feed.
But trust in the government is low. A WFP 'flash appeal'
has so far secured pledges of only about $150m: $89m from the United States, €9
mn ($10m) from the European Union and £50-60m ($60-75m) from the United Kingdom.
If money can be raised for emergency imports, there are
still big logistical challenges that increase the risk of starvation. Zimbabwe
has enough grain to support its population for the next three months. Drought
has affected the whole region, so most imports will have to come from outside
Africa. Africa Confidential
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