When the scarf-clad Zimbabwean president, Emmerson
Mnangagwa, touched down at Harare's scruffy-looking airport, he did not get the
sort of reception that I am sure he was hoping for.
He had spent a week in Europe trying to drum up investment
and loans to keep his bankrupt administration afloat but he came home with
little in the way of financial support.
What's more, he was going have to deal with the fact that
tens of thousands of Zimbabweans had been protesting a whopping 150% rise in
petrol and diesel.
The protests have been met by a brutal police crackdown
which saw 12 people killed and dozens injured.
Mr Mnangagwa's trip, which was supposed to include a stop
at the Davos Economic Forum, was always going to be a challenge. The one-time
aide to former dictator Robert Mugabe took power in a military coup and won a
contentious election last year.
Shortly after that poll, his administration put down
anti-government demonstrations - and last week's fuel price protests,
characterised as "riots" by government officials, were similarly
crushed.
No wonder international organisations and western
governments would rather give Zimbabwe a wide berth. Mr Mnangagwa is looking
more like Mr Mugabe than the man who said he could engineer the country's new
dawn.
The task at hand is immense. The Zimbabwean government is a
dysfunctional organisation built on 39 years of gross patronage. An estimated
90% of government revenues is spent on salaries while civil servants use their
positions for personal gain.
The currency system - if that is the right way to describe
it - is in a something of a death-spiral, based on something called the
"bond note".
It is a surrogate currency which is supposed to be equal to
the US dollar but it is taking more and more bond notes to buy the same thing -
like 55 bond note "dollars" for a yellow pepper in a Bulawayo this
week.
A US economist estimated the Zimbabwe's annual inflation
rate at 236% this week - as opposed the government's own figure of 42%.
Most importantly perhaps, Mr Mnangagwa and his closest colleagues,
like the vice-president and former army head, Constantino Chiwenga, do not look
like people willing to countenance the possibility that they could be voted out
of office.
The president knew he was going to win last year's election
when he called it (people in rural areas can lose their lives and livelihoods
if they vote for the opposition) and it would take a determined attempt at
reform to make Zimbabwean elections free.
It is this lack of political and economic change that has
resulted in the rapid deterioration of living standards since last year's
election.
In Victoria Falls in northwest Zimbabwe, a community once
favoured for mass tourism and foreign investment, the hotels are mostly empty
and local people are largely unemployed.
Few people will come here to build and develop this place -
or even stay for a few nights - when the country is in such a mess. SKY NEWS
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