The fall of Zanu PF bigwigs in the just-ended primary
elections shows that a faction linked to former president Robert Mugabe will
have a say in the future of the ruling party, analysts have said.
Mugabe was toppled in a coup in November last year and most
influential members of his G40 faction — mainly comprised of young turks with
no liberation war history — were forced into exile.
They include former Higher Education minister Jonathan
Moyo, ex-Local Government minister Saviour Kasukuwere and Mugabe’s nephew
Patrick Zhuwao.
Mnangagwa’s closest allies Abedinico Ncube, Mike Bimha,
Christopher Mutsvangwa, Martin Dinha, Paul Munyaradzi Mangwana, Christopher
Chitindi and Amon Murwira were some of the heavyweights that lost in the
controversial Zanu PF primaries.
Mustvangwa accused the police, which he said were still
influenced by G40, of orchestrating his defeat in Norton and has warned that
Mnangagwa will lose the next elections if he does not tackle emerging problems
in Zanu PF.
University of Zimbabwe lecturer Eldred Masunungure said the
results of the primary elections showed that although G40 leading lights had
been pushed out of Zanu PF, their ideas still held sway in the ruling party.
“Even if it was defeated, the legacy of G40 still lives on;
the principles that inspired G40 have been taken on board by Team Lacoste
(Mnangagwa faction),” he said.
“However, the voting-in of youthful candidates can also be
motivated by the reality that they are facing.
“They are facing a youthful adversary in the form of the
MDC-T whose leadership belongs to the more youthful generation.”
The MDC-T is led by 40-year-old Nelson Chamisa who took
over from the late Morgan Tsvangirai in February.
Chamisa, who leads the MDC Alliance — a coalition of
opposition parties — has structured his campaign to tap into Zimbabwe’s rising
crop of young voters.
“Lacoste, which is largely constituted of the older
generation, is recognising the idea of fusing the older and the youthful generation
coming from the G40 faction and largely the MDC because they are their opponent
in the forthcoming elections,” Masunungure added.
“The youthful generation becomes the new demographic
battleground in both Zanu PF and MDC-T as long as Zanu PF projects a new
youthful image.
“The MDC has a new challenge on their hands. They can no
longer claim the youth vote, which has become a new frontier for contestation.”
Harare-based political analyst Alexander Rusero said Zanu
PF’s power dynamics had been reduced into a contest between Mnangagwa and Moyo.
“What we can make from the voting out of the old guard is
the G40 idea was perceived to be a good idea in bad hands,” he said.
“Moyo was advocating generational consensus, but the idea
was caught in a messy factional fight.”
Rusero said the emergence of young candidates would present
a tough challenge for the MDC-T, which was seeking to tap into youthful voters.
“All that the MDC-T was riding on has been stolen by Zanu
PF,” he said.
“Even social media has been invaded by Mnangagwa.
“Zanu PF has liberalised its approach, hence the ‘open for
business’ mantra.
“Mnangagwa is trying to balance power between the old guard
and the young and, therefore, the MDC-T should fight hard to secure a new niche
market.
“It is no longer the people’s obligation to vote for them
because they did not want Zanu PF, but for their ideas and what they stand
for.”
However, Ibbo Mandaza, a veteran political analyst, warned
against reading too much into the voting patterns in the just-ended Zanu PF
primaries.
“The polls show support for individuals recognised in
communities, not party and political parties, and there will be a real war on
the opposition’s hands,” he said.
“The old guard were easy to beat because they were
identified with Mugabe.
“This election is all about the youths versus the old and
we can expect Mnangagwa to fall the same way.”
The primaries in some areas took place amid chaos after
ballot papers arrived late or were delivered to wrong locations.
In several wards in Mashonaland West province, brawls broke
out and opposing sides threw bottles at each other, according to Jairos
Wirirani, who went to vote in the small farming town of Raffingora, north of
Harare.
“It’s not surprising that the old guard is falling,”
Rashweat Mukundu, an analyst at the Zimbabwe Democracy Institute, said.
“We’re seeing a reconfiguration of politics in Zanu PF, and
by extension Zimbabwe.”
Before the ouster of Mugabe, who had ruled the nation since
1980, Zanu PF usually imposed approved candidates. Standard
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