ZIMBABWEANS believe MDC Alliance presidential candidate
Nelson Chamisa could deliver jobs if elected to office at the end of the month
compared to his rival and incumbent President Emmerson Mnangagwa.
A survey commissioned by respected Pan-African think-tank
Afrobarometer and undertaken by locally-based Mass Public Opinion Institute
(MPOI), shows that this could be the most closely fought election. Despite
Chamisa’s disapproval of how the Zimbabwe Electoral Commission (Zec) has
handled the pre-election process, public confidence in the poll management body
remained high.
Chamisa, who took over the leadership of the MDC-T
following the death of former premier, Morgan Tsvangirai, has left no stone
unturned, projecting himself as the fresh face of the democratic struggle.
“To Chamisa’s credit, however, his vigorous efforts to
introduce himself to the electorate have apparently begun to pay off. Instead,
on the core issue in the campaign – job creation – he has established a more
favourable public reputation than his chief rival (Mnangagwa).
“Asked about ‘who will do a better job in creating jobs for
the people’, respondents said that Chamisa outranks Mnangagwa by 10 percentage
points (42% vs 32%). The remainder either ‘didn’t know’ or refused to answer
(18% combined) or said ‘neither of them’ (8%). It is, therefore, possible that
perceptions of Chamisa as a more capable job creator – correct or not –
probably help explain the MDC’s recent gains in party identification,” the
survey showed.
Opinions, according to the results of the survey, remained
sharply divided along partisan lines, with urban respondents favouring Chamisa
while their rural counterparts think Mnangagwa was well-placed to change their
fortunes for the better. Respondents, the survey indicated, seemed to also have
ignored Chamisa’s so-called “childish antics”.
“At the same time, popular trust in the opposition leader
and his party and alliance seemed to be on the rise – from 40% of citizens
interviewed in early May to 48% in early July. Nor does he (Chamisa) seem to
have been badly hurt by naïve gaffes or over-enthusiastic campaign promises,”
Afrobarometer said.
The survey showed that Chamisa has whittled down
Mnangagwa’s lead to 3% with a 2% margin of error, adding that it was
“impossible to rule out the possibility that Chamisa had taken the lead”.
MPOI executive director Eldred Masunungure, while admitting
there was a chance for a run-off, said the election could be decided by the
leading parties’ ability to marshal their supporters to the polling booth.
“The winner will be dependent on which of the two leading
parties (Zanu PF and MDC Alliance) has shown greater organisational ability.
That in my view will be decisive,” Masunungure said.
But University of Zimbabwe political science lecturer
Ashton Murwira said the survey indicated a widening of the political space and
the possibility of “a free and fair election”.
“This is indicated by the people’s confidence in the
government and the Zec. There could be change in perceptions given the salary
adjustments to civil servants.
“This is a great indication, but not the results. The final
will come on July 30, the environment is fluid. There is a possibility of a
run-off or even an outright winner,” Murwira said. With an expected 80% voter
turnout, Afrobarometer in its survey argued that Zanu PF has shown greater
organisational capacity.
“Throughout the campaign, more citizens reported attending
ruling party than opposition events. In early July, for example, twice as many
people said they had attended a Zanu PF meeting or rally (34%) than an MDC-T
party or MDC Alliance gathering (18%), a 2-to-1 gap that had held steady from
early May onward.
“The gap was especially wide in rural areas (by 4 to 1),
notably in Mashonaland Central (6 to 1). But in all likelihood and despite a
countrywide campaign blitz by Chamisa, the opposition continued to face a
persistent organisational and resource disadvantage against a State-funded
ruling party,” the survey added.
Another analyst, Tony Reeler argued that Chamisa could
actually be leading by now and pointed to support from former President Robert
Mugabe and respondents who did not reveal their preferences.
“If 80% will vote, then it means 4,8 million will vote.
Given 36% said they associate with Zanu PF and 34% for MDC Alliance, this will
translate to 1,7 million for Mnangagwa and 1,6m for Chamisa and 1,4 million who
we don’t know who they will vote for. Individually 40% (1,9m) for Mnangagwa,
37% (1,8m) for Chamisa and 20% (about 800 000) of uncommitted votes. The issue
is on the uncommitted and I will guess that it’s enough that the gap is closed.
While there could be a run-off, I would say there is a probability of a clear
winner, but it’s not going to be Mnangagwa,” Reeler said.
Reeler said the country was moving into a “highly complex
political situation” with questions around whether the military will accept a
result they do not favour.
Some 2 400 respondents were polled, with some 53%
indicating they trusted Zec was doing a good job in preparing for the election.
Newsday
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