By Matt Matigari
(The Source) – Zimbabweans
have suffered for long time, almost two decades to be specific. The strange
part is they suffered under the yoke of one of their own, President Robert
Mugabe.
This week, the unthinkable happened. We all know what
happened, whichever way you want to describe it, the sum total is that Robert
Mugabe is confined to the boundaries of his house, and does not seem to be
exercising the executive authority he was exercising barely 75 hours ago.
The complete reversal of fortunes for him seem to also signal
a possible complete reversal of fortunes for many Zimbabweans. That Mugabe is
finished is not the question, what should be in debate is how to marshal him
out of the system and perhaps the country as soon as possible.
A new era beckoning
Zimbabwe is at the cusp of a new era, for any era without
Mugabe at the helm is a new era. Without looking at the future with a pair of
rose-tinted glasses, thousands of Zimbabweans in and outside the country are
suddenly seeing glimmers of hope or the horizon. The excitement and anxiety
among the people is so conspicuous it can’t be missed. Positive change is all
they are looking for. The lives of a whole generation were wasted at the
selfish whims and caprices of a nonagenarian, who used the façade of elections
to rule, who at the back of his mind, viewed himself as an emperor.
Mugabe’s rule has killed hope, creating millions of
immigrants spread across the world. Perhaps the only other country in Africa
that has created so many immigrants is Nigeria and Somalia. The sad part is
that even after creating this huge diaspora through his feja-feja policies,
Mugabe did not shy away from milking the same diaspora for his continued reign,
which in recent years has contributed more foreign inflows than agriculture.
Negotiations with a stubborn man
Robert Mugabe has little shame. Its his character. But he
isn’t just shameless, he is stubborn too. The military guys who marooned him at
his palacious-house are very smart. They insist that there is no coup, just
that they are protecting the President from criminals that had captured him.
This of course is a smart move. It ensures that the fuss that often accompanies
operations of this nature around the world don’t happen here. However, Mugabe
has over the last several hours been stubborn, refusing to take a deal that
would free from his ruinous reign millions of Zimbabweans.
It’s very tough if you viewed yourself as an emperor to
suddenly be known as that former president who had an inglorious exit. He was
in denial. While a deal for his exit, to either depart for a country of choice,
likely Singapore or South Africa, coupled with his demands for certain security
guarantees had been cleared, Mugabe got a call from Zuma who advised him that
SADC was in meetings to address the situation. Afterwards, his stubbornness
started creeping into the discussions as he raised constitutional questions.
But ensuring his exit must be the single-minded objective of every progressive
Zimbabwean and the military has opened that window.
All options on the table
Mugabe himself is in denial. Perhaps those million-man
marches and those rallies gave him the impression that the people love him.
The street vibe in Harare is that even though citizens are
uncertain about what happens next, they are relieved and hopeful that the man
that held back their dreams has met their match, and hopeful that this is a
turn that could usher them out of their misery. It will be a cruel crush of the
people’s hopes if Mugabe were to either delay, prolong and/or find loopholes to
delay his departure. To ensure that this never happens, all options must be on
the table and must be put to work.
I am a believer in strategy, and like Mugabe did during his
reign, I believe on this matter, law follows strategy.
The Goals & Options
Effective strategy requires clarity of goals and
objectives. According to the statement by military chiefs when they announced
their noble initiative, their intention was to step in and rescue ZANU PF
because it was threatening the security, stability and economic interests of
the country. Most people may have various opinions about the objective of
rescuing ZANU PF from counter-revolutionaries within, but it is most likely
that all Zimbabweans agree that the security and economic interests of the
nation must be protected.
It is also generally agreed that it was against the
interest of the generality of Zimbabweans if the G40 faction had succeeded,
with the help of the President, to create a Mugabe political dynasty. We have
seen what happens with political dynasties in countries like Pakistan. The
vision for every Zimbabwean is prosperity! Better still, the achievement of the
Zimbabwean dream if we were to commonly define and agree on what that dream is.
These issues have never been top priority for Mugabe in his thirty-seven years
leading our government. This necessarily makes him a stumbling block that must
be set aside. So to achieve a smooth completion of the current operation, here
are what I think are the options.
I) The Nuclear Option
A nuclear option is the most extreme response possible to
this situation. It is a last resort but very drastic and severe in its
consequences. In light of the current scenario in which the military flexed its
muscles, this nuclear option means doing what normally happens in coup
scenarios where the outcomes become nastier than what’s happening at present
where the President and the general still sit across the table and have a
conversation. Clearly, the nuclear option is less desirable, but must
nonetheless remain on the table.
II) Negotiated Exit
General Chiwenga’s statement last Monday emphasized the
military’s role in protecting the constitution and the Republic. This does
suggest the army’s desire to uphold the constitution to the greatest extent
possible. This option is more desirable, though it has complications and may
necessarily drag the current lockdown scenario for longer than is necessary. It
involves engaging the ageing President to resign – a legitimate demand given
that it does seem the majority of the people want to see the back of Mugabe as
soon as yesterday. Veritas has made suggestions on what is constitutionally
possible as follows:
· The President can just quit, in which case the current
Vice President can step in in terms of the constitution to finish the term.
This assumes that the commanders find the current vice President Mphoko
palatable, which does not seem to be the case given the fact that he was
aligned with the people the military has described as criminal elements around
the President. In addition, the people have very little affinity for Mphoko
given his two years stay at the Rainbow Towers which resulted in several
demonstrations against him. This leaves the commanders with the choice of
persuading the President to appoint a new Vice President, which appointment can
be done in terms of sixth schedule of the constitution. After this appointment,
he can resign, to leave the new Vice President to create a transitional
environment while completing Mugabe’s term.
· The president can be persuaded to dismiss his current
cabinet and appoint new ministers and then resign, leaving the new Vice
President acting as President. Apparently, section 100 of the constitution
requires that an acting President get the approval of the majority of existing
ministers before dismissing or appointing ministers, which suggests that an
acting President will require Mugabe’s help before resigning.
III) Political process
This is a route that can either be pursued as an option or
parallel to the above options. These options are as follows:
· Impeachment by Parliament
The military chiefs made it clear that parliament and the
judiciary were not affected by their operation, and as such should continue
with their business. Prior to the current situation, Zimbabwe had 210 members
of the national assembly and 93 senators. The MDC had 20 members in the upper
house and 70 in the lower house. Impeachment requires a two thirds majority to
be done successfully, given the current dynamics, Mugabe’s unpopularity in his
own party and the absence of the G40 members that were championing his agenda,
its highly possible for both Zanu PF and the MDC to combine their effort and
impeach Mugabe while he is confined to his house with little capacity to whip
anyone. Using their free will, MPs are most likely to succeed in impeaching the
President.
This approach will leave the scenario where Mphoko steps in
as acting President. However, in an acting capacity, but it is easier to manage
that afterwards.
· Getting ZANU-PF to vote him out as first secretary of the
party.
Without a political party. Mugabe will barely have legs to
stand on. This is a process ZANU PF can explore through its organs, the
provincial committees, its central committee and if necessary an extra-ordinary
congress. The intricate workings of this approach and the legal nitty-gritties
are something their legal minds can drill down on and make sure this process is
water-tight. In light of this route, it is important to note that in terms of
the ZANU PF constitution, between congresses, the party’s central committee can
meet and make changes to its leadership.
For those that desire that Mnangagwa lead the ruling party,
it is important to note two things, firstly, that the politburo that took the
decision to expel him from the party has locus standi to do so, as this can
only be done by the central committee which handles those major decisions in
between congresses; and secondly, the animal called the Politburo wasn’t really
a party creation, but Mugabe’s creation where he handpicked a coterie of side
kicks from the central committee to create a buffer against the powers of the
central committee – an elected body.
The Politburo was fashioned by Mugabe as an elite club
where members of the central committee would aspire to be chosen into, but it
doesn’t have the powers it purports to exercise. Mugabe’s sole purpose of
creating the politburo must be understood in the context of the history of
ZANU, where top members used to be subjected to elections every six months –
which resulted in senior members being kicked out from time to time creating
extremely competitive jockeying for political positions.
· Mass Mobilization
As I noted above, the majority of Zimbabweans are very
excited about the prospects of seeing Mugabe’s back. There are so excited about
it that some have started a change.org petition to tell Jacob Zuma to stay out
of this affair. While Mugabe has used this tactic and state resources to
marshal people to his rallies as a show of public support, its clear that if
asked to come and demonstrate their support against Mugabe with guarantees that
no one will brutalize them, its is highly possible that millions will turn up
to show the world that they are tired of the President and he must leave.
However, such an approach requires engaging the military to make sure that
civilians do not interfere with an ongoing military operation, which can be
dangerous.
Conclusion
The political route, combined with the negotiated exit,
must be pursued in parallel. The nuclear option must remain on the table,
because when all else fails, it must still remain an option. What the generals
in particular, and Zimbabweans in general cannot afford to do is to miss this
opportunity to acquire change. It has been long known that the factional
fighting in ZANU PF is a powder keg. Though many were surprised at the sudden
turn of events, few Zimbabweans would actually claim that they were shocked by
it. We all watched the series as it played on episode after another. This can’t
be another opportunity to miss an opportunity. The country needs to progress
and achieve its full potential and we cannot be held back by the selfish ego,
whims and caprices of an individual whose life is in its sunset anyway.
We don’t even have a currency for goodness sake. The people
of Zimbabwe have a destiny far greater than Mugabe has allowed them with his
narrow outlook. But no man shall stand in their way, and thy will and hope
shall be done. That future and hope can slightly be delayed by Mugabe’s
tactics, but can never be denied. Mapping the future can no longer be the
preserve of a G40 cabal. Going forward, it must be driven by a Generation
Zimbabwe. – The author is a former banker, strategist and entrepreneur. He can
be contacted on [email protected].
*Acknowledgement: The constitutional options noted in this
article are by Veritas’ Constitution Watch.
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