PRESIDENT Emmerson Mnangagwa will storm into next week’s Zanu PF elective congress seeking to tighten his grip on power as his age is likely to trigger a fierce succession debate.
The ruling party holds its watershed congress from
Wednesday to Saturday next week with political observers noting various
unresolved issues that Mnangagwa needs to handle as he faces Nelson Chamisa and
his Citizens Coalition for Change (CCC) formation in next year’s harmonised
elections.
Mnangagwa, who succeeded late former president Robert
Mugabe through a coup in 2017, has been accused of failing to unite the party
in the post-Mugabe era.
The current Zanu PF leader vanquished a faction known as
the Generation 40 (G40) which was fronted by Mugabe’s wife Grace with support
from former cabinet members Jonathan Moyo, Saviour Kasukuwere, Patrick Zhuwawo,
Walter Mzembi and several others.
While reports have been awash of a rift between Mnangagwa
and Vice-President Constantino Chiwenga, (66), the two are expected to unite
ahead of the elections so that the ruling party consolidates its power.
The two leaders, who have shown unity in public, are,
however, reported to be clashing, with indications that Chiwenga is gaining
ground as Zanu PF leader ahead of Mnangagwa.
However, political observers have indicated that Chiwenga
would rather stand behind Mnangagwa than challenge him.
Mnangagwa has also been on a drive to consolidate his grip
on power in Zanu PF following a flurry of organisations registering as Zanu PF
affiliates although party national commissar Mike Bimha is on record saying
these were not involved in mainstream party activities.
The affiliates that have mushroomed ahead of the congress
and received with glee by Mnangagwa include YoungWomen4ED, YoungFarmers4ED,
Teachers4ED and several others.
Chiwenga is, however, believed to have strong backing from
the security forces, although these would also wait to see Mnangagwa run his
race if he wins the elections next year.
Dynamics defining the expected gamesmanship at the upcoming
congress will include whether the party’s second secretary Kembo Mohadi will
be reappointed at the congress after
resigning as state vice-president last year over allegations of sexual
indiscretions.
The issue of the second state vice-president will test
Mnangagwa’s statesmanship as he prepares for the elections next year.
Political observers and party sources contacted by the
Independent since last week said Mnangagwa would be expected to perform a
Houdini act at the congress next week especially when appointing his
vice-presidents and politburo members.
“In the scenario that Mnangagwa wins the election next
week, he is expected to name a second vice-president to serve under him with
Chiwenga but the questions remain on whether he will remain aloof and not appoint anyone like he did when Mohadi was
forced to step down.
“Mohadi lost the moral ground to assume the VP’s position
after his shenanigans were exposed and we do not expect Mnangagwa to let that
post remain vacant. Mnangagwa would also be in a quandary on whether to have
Mohadi continue as party vice-president and second secretary while he appoints
another person as state vice-president,” a source in the ruling party said.
The appointment of the party and state vice-president has
also led to intriguing conspiracies and reports, with many senior Zanu PF
leaders touted to be among those who Mnangagwa could catapult to the powerful
position.
Names being thrown around in Zanu PF circles include, but
are not limited to, party national chairperson Oppah Muchinguri, politburo
members Tshinga Dube and Speaker of the National Assembly Jacob Mudenda while
ZDF commander Philip Valerio Sibanda comes in as an outsider.
While Muchinguri, who also holds the powerful Defence and
War Veterans Affairs portfolio in cabinet has a good chance of assuming the
state VP position, the 1987 Unity Accord could stand in her way.
The December 22 1987 Unity Accord between Zanu PF and
PF-Zapu provides for the appointment of an ex-Zapu member as one of the two
VPs. Muchinguri hails from Manicaland and is not an ex-Zapu member.
“Historically, all those who have been Zanu PF national
chairpersons after the Unity Accord have reason to be state VP except for the
late Simon Khaya Moyo who was a victim of the factions leading to Mugabe’s
ouster. Joseph Msika and John Nkomo are good examples especially when we
consider the gentlemen’s agreement in the Unity Accord where the VP comes from
the former PF-Zapu while the women’s quota system also saw the rise of Joyce
Mujuru in her heyday.
“The national chairman’s position and women’s quota in the
presidium could work in Muchinguri’s favour. Firstly, Mugabe ditched the
chairman’s chances of assuming the VP position when he appointed Phelekezela Mphoko and Mnangagwa to the
positions,” another source said.
The observers also noted that appointing Muchinguri to the
VP’s position while ditching the former PF-Zapu members could cost Mnangagwa
dearly in Matabeleland.
The PF-Zapu factor introduces the debate on who could come
from that sphere of influence with Dube, Mudenda and Sibanda fitting into the
matrix.
Dube held senior positions in the PF-Zapu and while many
other leaders are not playing major roles in Zimbabwe and Zanu PF politics,
this could play to his advantage. But according to sources, the former Zimbabwe
Defence Industries (ZDI) boss may be incapacitated due to alleged health
problems.
“Dube is a courageous former soldier but this could be his
undoing because he does not pull his punches when speaking for or against the
leaders in the party.
“Remember, he once challenged Mugabe to open up on the
succession debate and he lost the favour of the then Zanu PF leader. It,
however, remains to be seen whether Mnangagwa would throw caution to the wind
to appease the people from PF-Zapu,” another source told the Independent.
Mudenda has been a senior Zanu PF leader from Matabeleland
with his roots firmly in Binga with observers throwing his name in the hat for
a long time.
“He is a level-headed politician who has earned respect
even from opposition elements, especially in the National Assembly where he has
been at the helm for a long time.
“While his backers could try to use the Matabeleland and
PF-Zapu factor, Mudenda lost his influence when he ditched the party in the
1980s to join Zanu PF and that could work against him,” a political observer
said.
They also noted the growing influence of the military
leadership in Zanu PF since 2017 adding that this brings Sibanda’s name into
the picture.
“General PV (Sibanda) is as calm as they come and has never
been vocal in political matters, leaving everything to speculation, especially
with the growing military influence in the ruling party.
“He has, however, remained quiet and calm but his Zipra
roots also play to his favour while the influence of the defence forces is
growingly palpable,” the observers added.
While Muchinguri, Dube, Mudenda and Sibanda have not
publicly commented on their political ambitions, Zanu PF structures have
remained in speculative mode leaving everything in the hands of Mnangagwa.
Meanwhile, as Zimbabwe descended into a military coup, key
elements that had coalesced around Mugabe under the G40 faction fled the
country, while Zanu PF deferred its elective congress after the party’s central
committee endorsed Mnangagwa to take over.
Zanu PF’s 7th congress comes after the party held chaotic
central committee elections that were marred by allegations of vote rigging.
An unresolved court application lodged by party activist
Sybeth Musengezi challenging Mnangagwa’s position as Zanu PF’s legitimate First
Secretary is secretly supported by “senior leaders” within the ranks of the
organisation, the Independent understands.
Musengezi’s house was allegedly petrol bombed by unknown
assailants on October 2, two days before his court case was heard with the
matter being struck off the High Court roll while awaiting a resolution of
another case in the Supreme Court.
In an interview with the Independent this week, Musengezi
said while it was certain that Mnangagwa’s bid at the congress would be a
shoo-in, there was growing discontent within the party amid calls for a change
in leadership.
If Musengezi’s court application turned out successful, he
said, the resolutions of next week’s congress would be null.
“There are some comrades who are disgruntled with the way
Mnangagwa has been violating the constitution. In a normal setup the court
application would have had a huge bearing on the outcome of the congress.
“Mnangagwa’s bid will not be opposed at the congress
because some comrades who also want to lead are afraid of opposing the
unconstitutional endorsements,” Musengezi said adding that he was not worried
about the congress but the outcome of his court case.
“If the courts say Mnangagwa ascended illegitimately in
2017 then the upcoming congress would also be null and void…because it would
have been presided over by an illegitimate leader.”
A lot of senior leaders,” Musengezi said, “secretly” threw
their weight behind his court application, encouraging him to fight on. Zimbabwe
Independent
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