By the end of the week on Saturday the rolling average of
daily infection rates had fallen to 1 004, roughly where we were on July 2 and
well under half the peak average of 2 355 seen on July 15.
Death rates continued to rise as infection rates started
falling in mid-July due to the fact that most people who die of Covid-19 were
infected one to three weeks earlier. But on July 29 the rolling average daily
death rate hit what everyone hopes was its peak of 79, and this week this average
has been falling reaching 42 on Saturday, its lowest for four weeks.
The rolling averages even out odd jumps and dips, and also
take into account statistical quirks like the fact that Harare’s recorded no
cases or deaths on Saturday because of test delays, although this province
usually leads both provincial tables.
While the fall in infection rates, followed by the fall in
death rates a fortnight later, are a direct result of the tighter lockdown
measures put in place and are likely to continue falling so long as Zimbabweans
continue to follow all the advice and rules put in place, we are still far away
from where we were in early June before the third wave started.
We are still seeing daily average infection rates around 30
times higher than what we experienced in the four-month gap between the end of
the second wave and the start of the third, and average death rates are around
20 times higher.
While these are a lot better than the almost 70-fold rise
in daily infections recorded in the middle of last month at the peak of the
wave, it shows how much more effort we all need to make until the wave has
fully retreated. Herald
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