PRESIDENT Emmerson Mnangagwa’s 2023 election campaign,
which has been underway since the Zanu PF Esigodini Conference in 2018, is
increasingly coming under scrutiny within government, the ruling party and
security establishments, amid growing concerns that he has failed to inspire an
economic turnaround and has been captured by powerful and corrupt cartels
bleeding the country.
In briefings this week, senior Zanu PF and government
officials also revealed the post-coup administration was in disarray because of
Mnangagwa’s alleged failure to ensure there was equitable distribution of the
“patronage” cake, hence the ongoing power struggles in the party.
Zanu PF was plunged into turmoil last week following the
suspension of deputy youth league secretary Lewis Matutu and political
commissar Godfrey Tsenengamu after they accused Mnangagwa’s allies and Zanu PF
benefactors — Sakunda Holdings boss Kuda Tagwirei, Green Fuel boss Billy
Rautennach and Grain Millers Association of Zimbabwe president Tafadzwa
Musarara — of corruption.
The politburo also demoted youth league boss Pupurai
Togarepi for showing solidarity with the suspended youths. The decision,
however, divided the party as some officials believed the youths had raised
genuine issues, which need to be addressed, given the toll that corruption was
taking on the economy.
Party officials also believe Mnangagwa has been captured
Gupta-style by Tagwirei, whom they say is the major beneficiary of the November
2017 coup, which toppled former president Robert Mugabe. The Gupta scandal
rocked South Africa during the last years of former president Jacob Zuma’s
presidency. It involved three wealthy Indian brothers, Ajay, Atul, and Rajesh
Gupta, who, using their closeness to the presidency, were accused of seizing
control of the state apparatus while enriching themselves.
According to findings of the state capture commission of
inquiry, the Guptas used their ties to Zuma and, with the help of leading
international firms like KPMG, McKinsey and SAP, drained the national treasury
of as much as US$7 billion. Following the inquiry, Zuma was forced to resign. McKinsey
offered an extraordinary public apology for its role in the scandal, while the
Guptas fled to Dubai.
Sakunda has been implicated in alleged abuse of funds under
the controversial command agriculture scheme amid claims that there are no
records and accountability of how close to US$3 billion was disbursed under the
scheme.
“There is serious soul-searching and candid talk within the
party. People are asking if the coup promises are being fulfilled and, sadly,
Mnangagwa has failed to deliver. Corruption is increasing, but as you know
corruption in itself is not a problem in Zanu PF, but the problem is that only
a few individuals are being allowed on the gravy train,” an official said.
“There is concern that the economy is worse off than it was
in 2017 and there is a genuine worry that Mnangagwa has been captured. There is
also anger that a three or four-man kleptocracy has been created following the
coup. Unlike during the Mugabe era when the cake was shared amongst many such
that those far away from the centre would get crumbs, Mnangagwa has opened the
door only to his family and a few individuals.
“That is why the likes of (Chris) Mutsvangwa (Mnangagwa’s
former advisor) are angry. Besides Mnangagwa’s failure, he is angry the
president’s cartels have shut him out of the energy sector and that is a
grievance shared by many.”
Mutsvangwa, in an interview with our sister paper The
Standard last weekend, revealed that problems arose in Zanu PF mainly because
of fights for control of strategic national resources which are now
concentrated in just a few hands.
However, the party’s acting spokesperson Patrick Chinamasa
this week took a swipe at Mutsvangwa alleging sour grapes.“I have heard him
(Mutsvangwa) say that, but I am not privy to that competition for a resource.
The fact that it’s a competition; you cannot say its corruption. Let’s define
corruption correctly. If he (Mutsvangwa) has evidence, he must go to Zacc (the
Zimbabwe Anti-Corruption Commission). If he thinks that whatever happens in
that fight for the resource is corruption, he must go to Zacc and report it. He
will be a key witness. In this case he mentions the pipeline, but I don’t
understand what the issue is.
It’s like hitting at your rivals. He has no reason to
tarnish those who are competing against him and label them corrupt either
because you have lost the tender or failed to get a deal,” Chinamasa said.
Pressure on Mnangagwa
The ruling party officials said the growing concerns had
resulted in Mnangagwa’s position coming under scrutiny, with many processes
already underway to pile pressure on him ahead of the party’s 2022 elective
congress.
Although the number one resolution at the Esigodini
Conference was the “Reaffirmation of President Mnangagwa as the Party’s
Presidential Candidate for 2023 Elections”, the Zimbabwe Independent was told
there are discussions at various levels focussing on Mnangagwa’s viability as a
candidate, given his failure to inspire an economic turnaround and his
association with cartels. The 18th Zanu PF conference in Goromonzi last year
also affirmed the President as the party’s sole candidate in 2023, but the position
is gradually changing, insiders said.
“Besides the question of whether Mnangagwa should be
allowed to contest the 2023 elections, there are also questions about whether
he should actually be allowed to complete his term, which has been disastrous so
far,” a senior party official said.
At a press conference yesterday, Zanu PF youth secretary
for information and publicity, Yeukai Simbanegavi, said party youths were ready
to defend Mnangagwa “at all cost”.
“One of the main issues discussed here is the issues of
discipline. We have emphasised that as the youth league, we need to be very
disciplined and we also need to be defending the party and the revolution as
well as our President, Comrade ED Mnangagwa at all cost and without fail,” she
said.
Simbanegavi said the youths supported the politburo
decision to suspend Matutu and Tsenengamu. She also said they strongly
supported his 2023 bid.
Chinamasa also insisted that Mnangagwa would still be the
party’s candidate in the 2023 polls. “There is no faction at the moment. We
have taken a position as a party to say in 2023 our candidate is President
Emmerson Mnangagwa. Why we are doing that is to kill any divisions within our
party,” he said.
Party sources, however, said despite efforts to mask divisions,
discontent had cascaded to the military and other security organisations.
As reported by the Zimbabwe Independent last week, army
commanders have deployed intelligence personnel into communities to, among
other things, gather intelligence, assess the national mood and gauge
Mnangagwa’s popularity. These include members of the Special Air Services based
at Inkomo Barracks and military intelligence personnel based at Kabrit.
Military sources said the deployment, which is apolitical
and not a military operation was not for purposes of executing a November
2017-style coup, but to understand better the situation obtaining on the ground
for scenario mapping and planning. Following last week’s story, Zimbabwe
National Army national spokesperson Alphios Makotore issued a statement saying
the army was apolitical.
“The Zimbabwe National Army is apolitical and its roles and
duties are clearly specified in the Constitution of Zimbabwe and amplified in
the Defence Forces Policy. The army is a professional national institution that
is guided by the country’s constitution. When it deploys, the nation is
accordingly informed. There is therefore no secrecy on its deployments,”
Makotore said in the statement.
According to sources, there are three options which are
currently being weighed in the party, government and outside government.
The first option, which is in line with the proposed
Sadc-driven mediation by former South African president Thabo Mbeki, is to
nudge Mnangagwa into an agreement with MDC leader Nelson Chamisa which may
result in a government of national unity.
“This is why the suspended youths are pushing a multi-party
and multi-interest youth conference on Friday next week. This could kick-start
the process,” an official said.
There are, however, concerns that an inclusive government
may present the same problems as those experienced between 2009 and 2013, when
there was lack of unity and cohesion in state operations. The other option is
that Mnangagwa should not be re-elected at the party’s 2022 congress while
others believe he should step down even before his tenure is completed to allow
for someone else, preferably Vice-President Constantino Chiwenga to complete
the term. Those against Chiwenga’s rise believe he is also captured by the
Sakunda boss, whose company had given him vehicles to monitor the command
agriculture programme.
Tagwirei also bought Chiwenga another vehicle for personal
use.“Besides, in terms of the governance system, nothing much would have
changed under Chiwenga,” an official said.
The third option, which is not popular in Zanu PF, but is
being discussed by neutrals and in diplomatic circles, is that a National
Transitional Authority (NTA) takes over and prepares the groundwork for
elections.
The NTA would oversee a number of electoral, constitutional
and political reforms for an agreed period before a general election is held.
However, sources indicated that many Zanu PF officials are against the idea as
it would result in the loss of power and also leave the preparations for
elections out of the party’s hands. Zimbabwe Independent
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