Dr Kerrin Begg, a public health expert at Stellenbosch University,
told Sowetan “There is a range of options
available, with lockdown on the one end and returning to the normal way of
doing things on the other.”
After the stringent regulations of lockdown, a period could
ensue which “allows for some measure of increased economic activity” but even
so, “people would have to continue with the golden rules of hand hygiene, and
physical distancing”.
Begg said a possible strategy would be “a staggered return
to work”, but that would be “very difficult to assure compliance and to
police”.
Rules for public transport could be adjusted so that, for
example, even after lockdown taxis would only be allowed a capacity of 50%, but
even so, measures would be needed where people congregate, like taxi ranks and
bus terminuses.
Ultimately, said Begg, every strategy “really comes down to
each person understanding why it is so imperative for all our sakes to stick to
the golden rules”.
Another option could be a “soft lockdown” in which people
are asked to stay at home unless they need to shop or visit a doctor.
Authorities rely on peer pressure to encourage compliance,
though reports from Japan’s soft lockdown suggest it’s business as usual.
Selecting the best option was all about the data, said
University of Cape Town epidemiologist Prof Jabulani Ncayiyana.
SA was “at the beginning of the virus” and navigating
through uncharted territory, but even though better data would be available by
the end of April “it is very difficult to talk about time frames now”.
Scientists could create models to predict the spread, the
results of efforts to curb it, the mortality rate and more, but there were “so
many variables”.
Even so, we have to work with the data we have to plan the
next move, and Ncayiyana said “data is key for an appropriate response” and we
would start to get a much clearer picture of “the numbers since testing was
scaled up”.
The one thing we can predict is the mental and physical
fallout. A study of four weeks in lockdown in China revealed those who’d
stopped working were at higher risk of worse mental and physical health, as
were those with existing health conditions.
The study, led by the University of Adelaide in Australia,
focused on 369 adults in 64 cities. Lead author Stephen Zhang said it offered
“a crystal ball into the mental health of residents in other countries once
they’ve been in the lockdown for a full month”.
Co-author Prof Andreas Rauch from the University of Sydney
said: “We weren't surprised ... Work can provide people with a sense of purpose
and routine, which is particularly important during this global pandemic.”
Prof Shabir Madhi, an infectious diseases expert at Wits
University, said what happens after lockdown would be determined by what
happened over the next three weeks in terms of testing, tracing, isolation and
quarantining.
“As soon as you lift the lockdown, you get a rebound,” he
said, adding that SA had not done enough testing in the early part of lockdown.
“In terms of reducing transmission, you have to identify
cases in households and then put them into isolation and quarantine their
contacts. Otherwise, those in the house spread the virus to one another at a
rapid rate, and then go out and spread the virus back into the community,” he
said.
“With us not having done early identification during the
course of the first lockdown, we risk this rebound.”
Begg said educational institutions could be a hotspot for
rebounds, and another strategy would mean a delayed return to in-person
education.
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