A United Kingdom based think tank, Economist Intelligence
Unit (EIU), a member of The Economist Group has predicted a comfortable win for
Zanu-PF in the 2023 harmonised elections.
In its report that was released last week, the unit said
the main opposition party, the MDC-Alliance, had no political ability to hold
the Government to account.
“In the most recent presidential election, in July 2018,
President Mnangagwa won 50.8 percent of the votes just enough to avoid a
run-off against his nearest rival, Nelson Chamisa of the MDC,” said the unit.
“Mr Chamisa secured 44,3 percent of the vote, with the remainder spread across
the other 21 candidates.
“In the legislative election, which was held at the same
time, Zanu-PF secured a two-thirds parliamentary majority, with 179 out of 270
seats. Zanu-PF remains in a dominant position because any group splitting from
the ruling party would lose access to the benefits of incumbency.
“The opposition has little political authority or ability
to hold the government to account. The next presidential and legislative
elections are due to be held in 2023. We expect Zanu-PF to win comfortably
given its stranglehold on the political scene.”
The EIU also predicted a sharp increase in economic reform
from 2021.
They said the journey towards creating a productive economy
will require massive trimming of public expenditure.
“Government revenue will decline in 2020 as the economy
contracts by almost 13 percent,” it said.
“However, as economic activity increases steadily in
2021-24, and government capacity to collect taxes improves, we forecast that
revenue will pick up steadily.
“In 2021-24, as revenue increases, expenditure will rise
steadily, as the government seeks to repair infrastructure following years of
underinvestment, support broader economic growth and maintain the substantial
public-sector wage bill. We expect the fiscal deficit to narrow slightly in
2020, to 6,3 percent of GDP, before trending down in 2021-24, to 5,9 percent of
GDP in 2024, as revenue growth out paces spending growth.”
The unit said a greater access to external credit will
arise only if Zimbabwe successfully implements reforms and clears arrears to
international institutions.
The unit has over 60 years in intelligence gathering and
reporting, as well as providing forecast and advisory services to assist
entrepreneurs, financiers, and Government officials to more than 200 countries.
Herald
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