Mnangagwa, who took over from the late Robert Mugabe after
a military coup six years ago, will be running for his second and final full
term in office.
The 80-year-old ruler has relied heavily on a shadowy
‘non-governmental organisation’ known as Forever Associates Zimbabwe (FAZ) for
his re-election campaign because of divisions in Zanu PF, which nearly cost him
the 2018 elections.
FAZ, which is said to have links with the Central
Intelligence Organisation, ran Zanu PF’s primary elections where the majority
of the sitting MPs fell by the wayside amid widespread reports of vote rigging.
Clionadh Raleigh, executive director of the Armed Conflict
location and Event Data Project (ACLED) and a senior professor of political
violence and geography in the School of Global Studies at the University of
Sussex in the United Kingdom, said Mnangagwa’s succession was a potential
powder keg.
In a paper titled: Political succession and intra-party
divisions: Examining the potential of violence in Zimbabwe’s 2023 elections
published on Friday, Raleigh said Mnangagwa’s age and the presidential term
limits were an albatross on Zanu PF.
“As aforementioned, in Zimbabwe’s current political
climate, there is a high level of economic and social malaise,” she wrote.
“These issues are mirrored in Zanu PF where many factions
exist and fewer resources are being shared around and the churn of
opportunities and positions is non-existent.
“But crucially: this is likely to be Mnangagwa’s last
election, as he has reached 80 years. Who will come next?
“There are no more ‘original’ war veterans, and waiting in
the wings are those whom Mnangagwa purged from the party and state (for
example, Saviour Kasukuwere, a former Zanu PF heavyweight and leader of the
late Mugabe-era faction ‘Generation 40’ who attempted to shoehorn Grace Mugabe
into power).”
Kasukuwere was banned from running as an independent in
Wednesnday’s election because he has been out of the country for more than 18
months.
Raleigh predicted that jostling for the top post in Zanu PF
would be intense.
“The end of this reign is important because the jostling in
Zanu-PF elite circles will be fierce and directed towards building loyalty for
the presumed successor (whomever that may be),” she added.
“With any change in government, the Zanu PF political
machine will be recalibrated. If that is happening too early (as in, during
this election), then the outcome for the top of the Zanu PF hierarchy is in
question.
“This is a present concern because if Zanu PF cannot depend
on local party apparatchiks and local administrators to return the ‘right
results’ and for the ‘right candidate’, then they risk losing this election.
“In a repeat of 2008, those at the Zanu PF centre will go
to extreme lengths to hold onto power, and this leads to inflated risks to
local administrators and voters living in ‘defecting’ areas.”
There have been reports that Vice President Constantino
Chiwenga is angling for Mnangagwa’s
post, but the former army commander has said he does not habour such
ambitions.
Meanwhile, Mnangagwa yesterday told Zanu PF supporters at
his last campaign rally before the elections in Shurugwi that he was confident
of victory and had invited international observers because he has nothing to
hide.
“We have nothing to
hide,” he said.
“We have invited 45 countries, 17 regional and
international bodies and all consulates to observe our elections.
“We also invited
Southern African Development Community countries.”
A number of election observers arrived in the country last
week.
The Commonwealth is
also observing the elections for the second time since 2018.
Mnangagwa, however, told observers from foreign countries
not to have a biased mind.
“Please do not come to become observers with foregone conclusions
from your countries," he said.
“We have open minds and we are a peaceful country.
“It is us and not
any other organisation, which can come to teach us how to run peaceful
elections.
“We are not doing this to please anybody. It is us who can
run free and fair elections."
The European Union Elections Observer Mission (EU EOM)
yesterday castigated what it said were attempts to discredit its work after
state-controlled media claimed it had bribed local journalists with whisky and
groceries.
EU EOM chief observer Fabio Massimo Castaldo said the
reports were “defamatory” and
“unfounded”.
“The EU EOM has taken note of previous unacceptable
attempts to discredit the mission. The EU EOM sees these articles as blatant
disinformation of the Zimbabwean public,” Castaldo said.
“They reflect a continued effort to undermine the EU EOM
and credible election observation.” Standard
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