At least US$35 million worth of goods could struggle to be
imported into the country if the coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak that has
disrupted world trade continues, an analysis of the country’s trading patterns
by our sister paper Business Weekly has revealed.
In 2019, Zimbabwe imported goods worth US$411 million from
China, translating to an average US$34,3 million per month, while in 2018
imports from China were more than US$450 million.
While direct exports to China seem insignificant according
to figures provided by Zimstat, Zimbabwe indirectly export more than a billion
dollars’ worth of products to the Asian giant.
By October last year, Zimbabwe had exported 17 million
kilogrammes of tobacco worth US$120 million to China. The country’s mineral commodities worth
billions of dollars are probably indirectly exported to China via South Africa,
Zimbabwe’s biggest trading partner.
Chinese media house Xinhua, last year reported that trade
between China and Zimbabwe stood at US$1,3 billion in 2018.
However, trading with China and other trading partners will
come under threat if COVID-19 coronavirus epidemic continues unabated. Some
countries are already restricting travel to and from their countries with
Lesotho allegedly sealing its borders. The US has also issued a Europe travel
ban.
According to reports, freighters are currently struggling
to load up supplies and distribute them throughout the world because they
cannot enter many harbours, especially in China.
The coronavirus is quickly spreading to countries other
than China and making its effects felt around the world as countries are no
longer able to import or export critical goods.
The economic uncertainty COVID-19 has sparked, will likely
cost the global economy $1 trillion in 2020, the UN’s trade and development
agency, UNCTAD, said this week.
“We envisage a slowdown in the global economy to under 2
percent for this year, and that will probably cost in the order of $1 trillion,
compared with what people were forecasting back in September,” said the
director of division on globalisation and development strategies at UNCTAD,
Richard Kozul-Wright.
Launching the UNCTAD report as world financial markets
tumbled over concerns about supply-chain interruptions from China, and oil
price uncertainty among major producers, Mr Kozul-Wright warned that few
countries were likely to be left unscathed by the outbreak’s financial
ramifications.
According to estimates published by UNCTAD on March 4, the
slowdown of manufacturing in China due to the coronavirus could result in
decrease in exports across global value chains.
In February, China’s manufacturing Purchasing Manager’s
Index (PMI) — a critical production index — fell by about 22 points to 37,5,
the lowest reading since 2004.
Because China has become the central manufacturing hub of
many global business operations, a slowdown in Chinese production has
repercussions for any given country depending on how reliant its industries are
on Chinese suppliers. — Business Weekly.
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