ZANU PF and MDC have been warned against using by-election
results as a harbinger of the 2023 election outcome, though the outcomes’
psychological impact on the respective parties support base cannot be ignored.
Zanu PF has been trouncing MDC Alliance in almost all
by-elections held since last year’s harmonised elections, prompting ruling
party sympathisers to declare that they would once again outsmart the
opposition in the next general elections.
Just over the weekend, the ruling party recorded an
outright victory in the Tsholotsho Rural District Council by-elections,
garnering a total of 1 067 votes against MDC Alliance’s 168.
Zanu PF also won a council by-election held on the same day
in Hwedza, Mashonaland East.
However, political analysts told Southern Eye that though
the by-election outcomes have a huge psychological impact to supporters,
political parties should not be carried away.
“It is too early to say that the outcomes of recent
by-elections are a harbinger of the 2023 election outcome. So many things are
likely to change between now and then to worsen the situation for the
opposition or turn the tide against Zanu PF,” political analyst Effie Ncube,
said.
“Political parties would be stupid to ignore or read too
much into the by-elections. While they are not a photocopy of what is to come,
they have a huge psychological impact. They embolden Zanu PF and its
membership. This may result in a huge election turnout for Zanu PF members in
2023 and depressed turnout for the opposition,” he said.
Ncube, however, said the opposition needed to work on a
message that is tailored for rural communities and campaign hard.
“Fighting for electoral and political reforms is critical
and should be heard, but it cannot substitute for a winning message. You need
both. The urban economic and social priorities are different to the rural ones.
A message meant for urban voters can only yield a loss in rural elections,” he
said.
MDC has been pressuring the ruling party, demanding
electoral reforms with little success.
“The other thing is that opposition parties must work on
strong rural structures instead of parachuting in and out during elections.
They must be visible and speak to issues in those communities throughout the
electoral cycle.”
Another political analyst Bekezela Maduma Fuzwayo said the
MDC was not positioning itself as a better alternative to the rural electorate.
“The opposition party needs to start thinking of how it
will up its game against Zanu PF especially in the rural areas. It’s not enough
for the MDC to bank its support on the disgruntled urban electorate which they
also risk losing if they continue to take it for granted,” Fuzwayo said.
“The by-elections trend must begin to be warning bells for
the MDC to shake up now because if people can still vote for Zanu PF in these
difficult times it may be worse in 2023 when the economy will definitely have
improved.” Newsday
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