THE military is fretting over a potential electoral
strategic alliance between former president Robert Mugabe and the adventurous
opposition MDC Alliance leader Nelson Chamisa, whom it has warned could be
viewed as “a national security threat” if the two gang up against President
Emmerson Mnangagwa.
Mugabe, toppled in a military coup last November which
brought in Mnangagwa, is seen within the national security circles as the
X-factor in the July 30 general elections if he moves to get actively involved
either way. Mugabe is discredited, but has some remaining strategic electoral
value
Sources in the MDC Alliance told the Zimbabwe Independent
this week two army colonels approached Chamisa and said they were sent “from
above” to warn him not to engage Mugabe. The threats come at a time fears
abound within Zanu PF and the military that Mugabe — who still commands a
residual social base and loyalty within sections of the ruling party, army,
police and the intelligence community — could influence a significant number of
Zanu PF supporters to vote for Chamisa.
Divisions within Zanu PF and the security establishment
continue to bubble under the surface, erupting from time to time. The
Independent obtained and also listened to an audio recording of MDC Alliance
principals discussing the military threats and how to engage Mugabe under the
circumstances. Senior MDC Alliance leaders confirmed the issue.
However, Chamisa’s spokesman Nkululeko Sibanda said his
boss was not worried about the threats. “Freedom of association is an integral
part of the Zimbabwean constitution and therefore president Nelson Chamisa
would not be bothered by anyone sent to him. These are desperate people
clutching at straws to threaten him and the people of Zimbabwe,” Sibanda said.
Top Zanu PF leaders and security bosses fear Mugabe’s
active involvement in the electoral process, even at 94 and on a one-off, could
cause realigning elections in which movers of the old regime become the new
decisive shakers.
Security and Zanu PF apparatchiks told the Independent it
would be naïve to underestimate Mugabe’s residual social base and influence in
Zanu PF which could make him a variable with significant impact on the
elections outcome.
“There are serious concerns within the top Zanu PF
leadership and security circles that Mugabe might at the eleventh hour move to
spoil Mnangagwa’s party,” a security source said.
“Right from the beginning there was a plan to contain him
because after any military takeover, either the incumbent is forced into exile,
arrested and detained or is killed. In this case, nothing of the sort happened
to Mugabe. He was only restricted to his home.
“So there had to be a strategy to manage and contain him.
Plans were put in place. Plan A involved talking to him to bury the hatchet
with ED (Mnangagwa) and endorsing him for elections.
“Plan B was about keeping him quiet if he refuses to
reconcile with Mnangagwa. This meant a carrot-and-stick approach. On the one
hand, the new administration sought to appease him by leaving him in peace and
taking care of his needs; that is security, pensions, medical bills, travels
and other things.
“On the other, he was kept under pressure via intimidation,
coercion, blackmail, harassment of his workers and threats to seize his
properties. Effectively, he was kept under house arrest.
“The strategy is if he can’t endorse Mnangagwa, then he
mustn’t go to Chamisa; he must be managed or contained. His involvement in
politics, as we have already seen in the background, can cause problems.”
There are fears Mugabe could still be a trump card in the
elections despite his appaling legacy and old age as he has lingering support,
especially in the Mashonaland provinces.
Informed sources said as a result Mnangagwa has been
frantically trying to make peace with Mugabe who maintains that his successor —
the chief enforcer of his repressive rule — is an unconstitutional power
usurper.
After the coup there had been many emissaries to Mugabe:
Catholic priest Father Fidelis Mukonori; former Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe
governor Gideon Gono; businessman Jimayi Muduvuri; Central Intelligence
Organisation director-general Isaac Moyo and Equatorial Guinea leader Teodoro
Obiang Nguema Mbasogo, among others.
Mukonori and Gono, working with government officials,
brokered talks with the military. Muduvuri went to reconciliation talks. Moyo
was sent for containment. And Nguema tried to broker a peace deal, sources
said.
The sources also said other officials like cabinet
secretary Misheck Sibanda, Ray Ndhlukula, George Charamba, Mariyawanda Nzuwa,
Washington Mbizvo and Machivenyika Mapuranga were involved or considered to be
become part of plans to set up an office for Mugabe to run his new life out of
power.
Despite all these efforts, Mugabe — who has met opposition
leaders like Joice Mujuru and Ambrose Mutinhri, and now is reaching out to
Chamisa — has remained bitter and unmanageable.
This has raised serious concerns that after leaving Zanu PF
with political heavyweights and supporters under the G40 banner, Mugabe could
still indirectly influence the elections outcome even if he is unpopular with
and even reviled by vast sections of the population. Hence, the agitation by
Zanu PF leaders, securocrats and their supporters.
“Due to the factional fights over the years, Zanu PF is now
very weak, particularly in Mashonaland region. The party and the military know
that without those provinces they cannot win elections; that’s why they are
worried about the possibility of Mugabe endorsing Chamisa,” a former Zanu PF
official said.
“Mugabe still has support countrywide and can pull
significant numbers to Chamisa. In fact, that is why Mnangagwa wants Mugabe to
endorse him. He has sent some emissaries to try to secure that, but to no avail.”
According to a 14-point discussion document of a recent
meeting held by MDC-T and National Patriotic Front (NPF) — a party which has
Mugabe’s support behind the scenes — an endorsement of Chamisa by Mugabe was
recognised as something which “will bring a considerable and strategic
electoral base”.
An MDC Alliance principal told the Independent this issue
was worrying Zanu PF leaders and security chiefs, and that is why the colonels
warned Chamisa to stop associating with Mugabe.
“They told us that murikudya mutupo nezvamuri kuita (it is
taboo to work with Mugabe),” an MDC Alliance principal said.
The Independent has established that the MDC Alliance
principals think it could be strategic for electoral purposes to tap into
Mugabe’s residual support base. Mugabe is said to be keen to help out if his
family’s safety after the polls would be guaranteed.
Although Chamisa told a press conference on Wednesday that
he has no plans to meet with Mugabe “anytime soon”, an audio recording from a
meeting of MDC principals held recently revealed that the two could still meet
before polls.
In the audio, MDC Alliance senior leader Welshman Ncube
proposes how to engage Mugabe.
“He (Mugabe) says this boy (Chamisa) might help him if he
wins the elections. So he wants guarantees on how to protect his family in the
event that Chamisa wins. Mugabe is prepared to endorse Chamisa so that he gets
the vote of pro-Zanu PF supporters who do not support Emmerson (Mnangagwa),”
Ncube is heard as saying in the audio authenticated by the Independent.
“It is proposed that they should meet. They can meet at a
private place. He doesn’t have to go to the Blue Roof. Going that route will be
wiser given the hostile response of the military junta.”
Ncube suggested Chamisa writes a letter asking to meet
Mnangagwa as part of his engagement plan. At a press conference on Wednesday,
Chamisa confirmed writing another letter to Mnangagwa.
This week Ncube said: “As Alliance we talk to everyone. We
talk to all the institutions of state power directly and indirectly. It must be
taken as given. We are a serious government-in-waiting, so naturally we have
conversations with all the movers of state power. It’s normal. In a real
democracy it is expected there is engagement by leaders in opposition by those
who are in charge of levers of state power. You cannot have a transition
without those conversations.”
Zimbabwe Defence Forces spokesperson Overson Mugwisi denied
that the army sent colonels to threaten Chamisa.
“If there are people doing that, they are doing so
individually and not at the instruction of their commanders,” Mugwisi said.
Zimbabwe Independent
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