Thursday, 7 June 2018

ED WILL WIN : TWO SURVEYS

TWO poll surveys whose findings were released yesterday predicted that President Emmerson Mnangagwa would beat MDC Alliance candidate, Mr Nelson Chamisa if elections are held today.
A survey by Trends and Insights for Africa (TIFA) said if elections were to be held today, President Mnangagwa who leads Zanu-PF would garner 68,5 percent of the vote while Mr Chamisa would get 19,5 percent, National People’s party (NPP) leader Dr Joice Mujuru two percent, and others 0.5 percent of the vote.

TIFA is a full market research company offering market, social and sports research and is headquartered in Nairobi, Kenya.

The survey said 8 percent of the study population was undecided on whom they would back with the majority, 87 percent, showing strong leaning towards President Mnangagwa and 13 percent to Mr Chamisa.

Conducted in the country’s ten provinces from May 30 to June 4, 2018, the survey had a population of 3 005 participants, all of them registered voters with a +/- 2.19 percent margin of error.

Of the population, the survey revealed 55 percent said the country was moving in the right direction while 30 percent felt the opposite with 10 percent being non-committal and 6 percent saying they did not know.

Topping pressing issues that affect the people was cash shortages followed by unemployment, poverty, housing, corruption, poor roads, land disputes and health care.
The survey revealed that 98 percent of the respondents were very certain or somewhat certain that they will vote in the harmonised elections on July 30.

Of the population, the survey revealed that 74 percent of the respondents were closest to Zanu-PF, with 24 percent sympathetic to MDC Alliance, one percent to NPP and MDC-T Khupe respectively and one percent for others.
On whether they trust for the Zimbabwe Electoral Commission (Zec) to carry out credible elections, 63 percent gave affirmation while 18 percent said they had little, 10 percent said they do not have trust at all, 5 percent was non-committal and 6 percent refused to answer.

The Mass Public Opinion Institute (MPOI), which also released its report yesterday said Zanu-PF is likely to attract 42 percent of the votes in the coming general elections compared to 31 percent for the MDC Alliance if an election was to be held tomorrow.

MPOI is a non-governmental research organisation that focuses on gathering public opinion on topical issues of governance and public concern in partnership with Afrobarometer Network.
Afrobarometer Network is a pan-African, non-partisan survey research project that measures citizen attitudes on democracy and governance, the economy, civil society, and other topics.

Presenting the findings of the survey to civic society organisations and political parties in Bulawayo yesterday, MPOI principal researcher Mr Stephen Ndoma said Zanu-PF was tipped to win the elections.

The opinion survey conducted from April 28 to May 13 this year, had a sample size of 2 400 adult citizens with a margin of error of plus or minus two percent and at a 95 percent confidence level.

“If presidential elections were to be held tomorrow, Zanu-PF would attract 42 percent of the vote compared to 31 percent for the MDC-T (combined with MDC Alliance). But voting intentions of 25 percent of voters are unknown,” said Mr Ndoma.

On the voter-registration process, Mr Ndoma said the survey revealed that Zimbabweans expressed satisfaction but were doubtful about Zec.

“Most people, 95 percent, said they were ‘fairly’ or ‘very’ satisfied with their experiences with biometric voter registration centres, including the conduct of registration officials and the functioning of registration equipment. “A slim majority, 53 percent of Zimbabweans believe that the Zec is a neutral board, while 31 percent think it makes decisions that favour particular people, parties, or interests. About 46 percent of Zimbabweans say they trust the Zec,” said Mr Ndoma.

He added that most Zimbabweans were registered and ready to vote next month, with more than eight in 10 Zimbabweans confirming that they were registered.

“As of late early May, more than eight in 10 Zimbabweans said they were registered and likely to vote in the July elections. Among voters willing to declare their preferences in the presidential race, the Zanu-PF held a 42 percent to 31 percent lead over the MDC-T.

“When citizens were asked which party’s candidate they expected to win the presidential election, 44 percent said Zanu-PF, while 28 percent said MDC-T Chamisa and two percent said MDC Alliance would win. About one in four said they didn’t know, refused to answer, or said the election was too close to call,” said Mr Ndoma.

Last week, a survey conducted by the Pan African Forum Limited revealed that Cde Mnangagwa will garner 70 percent of the vote against Mr Chamisa’s 24 percent.  The Kenya-based network of African scholars conducted the poll whose results showed that President Mnangagwa is the people’s favourite and so is his party Zanu-PF.  Herald 

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