A month before
former President Robert Mugabe’s inglorious exit, his wife stunned Zimbabweans
when she dared soldiers to shoot her.
Grace Mugabe was complaining about alleged pressure from
the army for her ageing husband to hand over power to then vice-president
Emmerson Mnangagwa.
Three weeks after the 93-year-old ruler was forced to
relinquish power and as the dust settles after a dramatic transition that saw
Mnangagwa taking over from his mentor, questions are now being asked how Mugabe
failed to read the writing on the wall.
On November 15, the Zimbabwe Defence Forces announced that
they had taken over government and eventually squeezed the Zanu PF leader out
of power.
Grace was defiant to the end after pushing for Mnangagwa’s
dismissal as vice-president, a move that seemed to infuriate the military.
The former Zanu PF women’s league boss first accused the
military of plotting against her husband at a rally in Chiweshe where she also
had a go at the new president.
University of Zimbabwe (UZ) political science lecturer
Eldred Masunungure said although Mugabe was a shrewd politician, he did not
foresee a military takeover.
“I have always referred to him as a Machiavellian political
operator, who understands the logic of power and I think power tends to
intoxicate its holder,” he said.
“I think he had become so arrogant that he did not
appreciate that the pillar of the military also has its sensitivity and
interests that were being harmed by the manner in which it was being ridiculed
in public by the former first lady.”
Masunungure said Grace pushed the generals to the edge with
her abrasive approach to politics and her unbridled ambition.
The former typist enjoyed the backing of a Zanu PF faction
known as G40 and towards her last days the group was pushing for the
annihilation of the Lacoste faction linked to Mnangagwa.
“I think the former first lady was not very diplomatic in
the manner in which she articulated her interests and ambitions,” Masunungure
added.
“It is her intemperate language and gestures of not being
sensitive to the nature of the security forces and their interests, and that
the military, is particularly a sensitive institution.
“It is a pillar of support anywhere else but here it was
particularly in respect of the Mugabe regime and what she was doing was to
erode the confidence of the military and within it, the army.”
Mugabe had always relied on the military for political
survival, but the arrival of his 52-year-old wife on the political scene in
2014 changed the dynamics.
Grace appeared to be determined to succeed her husband but
the push was bound to rub Mugabe’s backers in the military the wrong way.
Masunungure said it was possible that the generals reached
out to Mugabe to rein in his wife, but the veteran ruler could not do anything
because of his advanced age.
“As I understand it, the security forces did express their
anxiety about the manner in which the former first lady was addressing the
military and the security chiefs, particularly those in the army and within it,
General Constantino Chiwenga,” the academic said.
“She could have expressed her concerns, if she had any, to
her husband who was the president but she managed to alienate a critical cog of
the Mugabe regime and when you do that the wheels tend to come off as they did
in mid-November this year.”
Mugabe could have also seen that a coup was imminent but
was still not able to tame his wife, Masunungure said.
“You should also appreciate and acknowledge that the former
president is of an advanced age and advanced fragility health-wise so his
mental and physical stamina are increasingly diminished and as a result he may
not have had enough control as he previously had even within his own household,
including controlling his wife,” he said.
“He failed to rein in his wife to ensure that she did not
act beyond the constitutional and legal confines of her role.
“She did not have any constitutionally defined roles except
that on the title ‘first lady’ and beyond that, she had no official government
or constitutional role to play in the governmental affairs of this country.”
Masunungure said Grace had also alienated influential
people in Zanu PF, creating a fertile ground for a popular uprising against the
world’s then oldest leader.
“She alienated many, not just in the military but in the
party. The manner in which she ridiculed, humiliated and embarrassed many of
the seniors in the party, including some old enough to be her father or
grandfather.”
“I think she did things in the wrong way. She was not as
political as she ought to be.”
Former Industry minister Welshman Ncube said Mugabe and
Grace were so naïve to the extent that they failed to read the signs that the
security forces were being pushed to the edge.
“The G40 cabal saw the coup coming including Grace, the
military themselves always warned, you recall General Chiwenga actually at one
point, three or so months ago claimed that the gun always leads politics and
Mugabe replied that politics has always led the gun in Zanu PF,” the MDC leader
said.
“You will also recall Jonathan Moyo’s presentation to the
politburo about state capture, that all state institutions and most state
institutions, including the military had been captured to overthrow Mugabe.
“We just didn’t believe it, but, clearly given the manner
in which the coup was executed there can be no doubt that it was planned a long
time ago.
“If you go back and read Moyo’s presentation and you read
President’s Emerson Mnangagwa’s rebuttal, you will see that everything Moyo
said was correct and if you today read what President Mnangagwa said in
rebuttal [it has] turned out to be false.
“So it’s not just that Grace said it, the whole of G40 saw
it, not actually did they see it, but the army itself didn’t hide its determination
to intervene in this thing. So it was always out there.”
Ncube said Mugabe may have failed to forestall the coup
because he strongly believed that the military would never turn against him.
“Personally, I think 37 years in power and being a strong man
and your word being literally the word, you tend not to believe anyone would
dare,” he added.
“I think that it was his undoing. he just thought they
wouldn’t dare and after the coup, he still didn’t think that they would disobey
him when he said, ‘fine, let’s go to the Zanu PF congress and do this’, up to
the very last minute he still thought that he had authority.”
However, Maxwell Saungweme, a political commentator
believes Mugabe and Grace were so out of touch with reality that they thought
they were indispensable.
“Grace might have seen a coup coming and chided people
about it but she, like Mugabe was out of touch with reality and thought the
mysticism, mystery and myth around the name ‘Mugabe’ and its supposed power was
too potent for any of those that were subordinate to Mugabe to turn against
him,” he said.
“It happens when one gets drunk with power and fame, a
spirit of invincibility engulfs you to the extent that you are larger than life
and not even a disease can afflict you.
“This is the mirage, the chimera the Mugabes believed so
much that they detached themselves from reality. Yes, you only had to be blind
to think all was okay.
“Even a naïve and unsophisticated mind like Grace’s could
discern that.”
United Kingdom (UK) based political analyst, Gladys
Hlatshwayo, echoed Saungweme’s sentiments saying the army takeover had become
inevitable after Mnangagwa’s expulsion from government and Zanu PF last month.
Human Rights watch southern Africa director Dewa Mavhinga
said the Zimbabwean security forces were too involved in politics, hence a coup
was always a possibility.
“But perhaps the mistake they made was to assume that
firing Mnangagwa would stop the generals, and that, as Grace often wrongly
said, Sadc and the AU (African Union) would not accept an unconstitutional
change of government,” he said.
“As it turned out, no one was prepared to defend Mugabe and
the generals made the coup look like it was not a coup, rendering outside
intervention pointless.
“Also Mugabe may have overestimated the power of his
patronage over the generals and underestimated the business and political ties
between Mnangagwa and the generals.
“Again Mugabe underestimated the patriarchal disdain and
opposition to Grace Mugabe taking over; perhaps if another candidate had been
put forward, resistance would not have occurred, while Mugabe was around. But
Grace was vile and made enemies left, right, and centre.”
Mugabe told a South African delegation sent by President
Jacob Zuma to mediate between the former president and the generals that he
never expected the military to turn against him because he gave them land.
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