By Simon Allison
Zimbabwe’s long-running succession drama exploded into life
on Monday when Robert Mugabe sacked Vice-President Emmerson Mnangagwa, who was
one of the leading candidates to eventually take over from the president.
Mnangagwa’s sudden demotion is likely to pave the way for
Grace Mugabe, the president’s wife, to assume more political power, perhaps
even replacing Mnangagwa as vice-president after next month’s ruling party
conference. Senate President Edna Madzongwe has been sworn in as acting
vice-president until then.
The 75-year-old Mnangagwa, nicknamed the Crocodile, was a
hardliner with close links to Zimbabwe’s security services - and a long-time
ally of the president, having worked in Mugabe’s office during the liberation
struggle in the 1970s.
Mnangagwa may have been officially fired on Tuesday
afternoon, but his fate had been sealed several days earlier. At a rally in
Bulawayo, a small group of Mnangagwa’s supporters booed Grace Mugabe, prompting
a vicious tongue-lashing from President Mugabe. “I am getting insulted in the
name of Mnangagwa daily. Did I make a mistake to appoint Mnangagwa as my
deputy? If I made a mistake I can even drop him tomorrow. If he wants to form
his party with his supporters, he can go ahead. We can’t have a party riddled
with insulting each other daily,” said Mugabe, while a humiliated Mnangagwa
watched on.
Fall from Grace
Mnangagwa would not be the first potential successor to
fall foul of Mugabe. Former Vice-President Joice Mujuru, at one point a
contender for the throne, was unceremoniously dismissed from the
vice-presidency by Mugabe in 2014 - and has struggled to remain politically
relevant since.
“Emmerson Mnangagwa’s fall from grace has been played out
in slow motion over the last few months in another demonstration of internal
Zanu-PF theatre that echoes with the purge of his predecessor Joice Mujuru,”
said Piers Pigou, southern Africa analyst with the International Crisis Group.
“Whether or not Zanu-PF emerges stronger from this latest
imbroglio is questionable, and we are yet to see what the repercussions are for
those elements of the party and state associated with the former
Vice-President. Survival will be utmost in the minds of many of those
individuals,” said Pigou. “We are in uncharted waters.”
Of particular interest will be the reaction of elements
within Zimbabwe’s military, police and the ruling party veterans’ association,
who have long been portrayed as supportive of Mnangagwa’s succession bid. But
this relationship may have been overplayed in the media, suggests
Blessing-Miles Tendi, a professor of African politics at the University of
Oxford.
“He only enjoyed strong support from a faction of the
military, particularly the faction centered around Zimbabwe Defence Forces
commander Constantine Chiwenge. Many figures within the military bore no
allegiance to him whatsoever. And the idea that the war veterans from the 1970s
war backed Mnangagwa, this too was myth-making, only a faction of the veterans
support him,” said Tendi, arguing that Mnangagwa’s lack of combat experience -
he never saw frontline action during the liberation struggle - counted against
him with soldiers.
Succession spotlight
Following Mnangagwa’s demotion, the succession spotlight
turns to Grace Mugabe, who must now be considered the frontrunner to succeed
her husband. Not only is the Crocodile out of the way, but as of this month she
has the official endorsement of the Zanu-PF Women’s League. This was
accompanied by calls to ensure that the next vice-president is female, to
ensure gender parity.
An extraordinary Zanu-PF congress in December is likely to
anoint Grace Mugabe as vice-president of the ruling party, with the national
vice-presidency to follow suit. This would mean that the Mugabes are nicely set
up for a family monopoly over the Zanu-PF ticket in the next presidential
elections, scheduled for mid-2018.
But although Grace Mugabe currently enjoys the upper hand,
it doesn’t mean that the succession race is over. Far from it. The president has
long built up potential heirs only to later tear them down, and there are no
guarantees that his wife would be an exception.
“There’s been talk from people who say potentially it’s
Grace who will take over, it’s in the bag now. My response to that is always
with Mugabe’s attitude towards women. Mugabe’s handling of female party members
and cabinet members has always been sexist, misogynistic. Time after time, it
is clear that he doesn’t relate to women much as capable political leaders. So
I don’t think Grace is his preferred successor,” said Tendi. Mail and Guradian
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