PRESIDENT Robert Mugabe could set himself a trap if he
accedes to calls by a faction of Zanu PF to turn the party’s December people’s
conference into an extraordinary elective congress, political analysts have
said.
This followed reports that the Wednesday Zanu PF politburo
meeting discussed the need to hold a special congress to decisively deal with
Vice-President Emmerson Mnangagwa’s succession bid.
NewsDay Weekender understands party commissar Saviour
Kasukuwere proposed that Zanu PF should turn its December conference into an
elective congress.
Zanu PF has two distinct factions, the G40 faction believed
to be led by First Lady Grace Mugabe and has Kasukuwere and Higher Education
minister Jonathan Moyo as its kingpins, while Team Lacoste is reportedly
sympathetic to Mnangagwa’s bid to succeed Mugabe.
Academic and political analyst Ibbo Mandaza, however, said
given the Zanu PF constitutional provisions, Mugabe did not need an
extraordinary congress to deal with his deputy.
He said, instead, the extraordinary congress could end up
electing Mugabe’s successor.
“It can only be used to anoint a successor, possibly it’s
the reason why it’s being called, I haven’t seen the details yet,” Mandaza
said.
“Mugabe has insisted several times that he cannot anoint a
successor. He has to be elected and, therefore, my own conclusion is that if a
special congress is called it can only be an elective one.”
“Grace wants the issue of succession dealt with in a manner
that protects her vast Mazowe investments post the Mugabe era. She wants the special
congress to ensure a person who will protect her interests and those of her
children after Mugabe,” a Zanu PF source said.
Section 26(2) of Zanu PF constitution provides for an
extraordinary congress only if there is a vacancy in the office of national
President or when a successor is to be chosen.
Zanu PF spokesperson Simon Khaya Moyo noted that Mugabe did
not need a special congress to deal with any of his politburo members.
“Politburo members are not elected, they are appointed by
the President. So why would the party need a special congress to deal with
members of the politburo?” he said.
However, Khaya Moyo said he was not aware of any plans by
Zanu PF to turn the people’s conference into an elective extraordinary
congress.
Highly-placed sources within the party said Mugabe could be
falling into a trap if he was to accede to the calls for an extraordinary
congress as a way to deal with his deputy.
“He has one centre of power, which means he is the
appointing authority of all his politburo members,” another source said.
“He, therefore, does not need a special congress to deal
with Mnangagwa; more critically, special congress can only be called to deal
with the post of the President and nobody else.”
United Kingdom-based law expert and political analyst Alex
Magaisa said legally, Mugabe does not need a congress to oust Mnangagwa.
“But politically, if he wants to get rid of him, he would
want it to appear like the decision is made by the party, not himself
personally,” Magaisa said.
“I think Mugabe prefers to keep Mnangagwa consistent with
the old principle that you keep your enemy closest, especially when you believe
he could be dangerous if he were outside. Mnangagwa will think it’s because
he’s untouchable, but really it’s because Mugabe wants to keep him close.”
Analyst Alexander Rusero also described Mugabe as a wily
fox who has never made a political mistake since 1974 and could have some
tricks in his bag if he were to allow the special congress to happen.
“He has a million tricks and you can’t put it past him that
he is behind the special congress although he does not need it to deal with
Mnangagwa. Taking Mnangagwa to an extraordinary congress could confirm that
Mugabe is afraid of dealing with his deputy and I am sure he does not like
that,” he said.
Rusero, however, said no matter what happens, Mugabe would
come out the biggest winner in December, with more powers consolidated around
him.
He said it was too late into the election season for Mugabe
to cut loose his deputy because this could have grave consequences to the
elections.
Mugabe has already been endorsed as Zanu PF’s presidential
candidate and would not need a special congress to represent the party at next
year’s elections.
Zanu PF needs five provinces to be able to call for an
extraordinary congress, which will only dispense with agenda items specifically
tabled for its calling. Newsday
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