Harare businessman-cum-musician Energy Mutodi was today
arrested following an article he posted on Facebook regarding President
Mugabe’s succession.
Police sources said Mutodi was arrested by detectives from
the CID Law and Order section in the morning and taken to Harare Central Police
Station for further investigations.
He is still assisting police with investigations and is
likely to face treason charges.
On August 6, Mutodi posted an article with a headline, “WHY
CHOOSING A SUCCESSOR IS A DIFFICULT JOB.”
“As President Robert Mugabe begins to look for a possible
successor from among his subordinates, Zimbabweans are anxious to know who will
eventually be picked to become the country’s second executive president,” he
wrote.
“Decision making in succession issues has always been a
problem among Africans; resulting in civil wars, repetitive coups and economic
turmoil.
“In Libya for
example, Muammar Gaddafi was killed after more than 42 years in power and with
no clear successor named. In Ivory Coast, Laurent Gbagbo was defeated in a
civil war and jailed overseas while his wife was also prosecuted and jailed for
20 years for aiding her husband in his efforts to retain power at all cost.”
In Uganda, President Milton Obote was in 1971 overthrown by
Idi Amin, the Commander of the Defence Forces after the later suspected the
president was about to retire him and sent him to jail for embezzling army
funds.
In Bakina Faso, President Michel Kafando and Prime Minister
Yacouba Isaac Zida were overthrown just three weeks before general elections by
General Gilbert Diendere who immediately took over power.
Between 1966 and 1999, the army held power in Nigeria
without interruption apart from a short-lived return to democracy between
1979-1983.
There are more than 200 successful and unsuccessful coups
that have occurred in Africa since 1960, prompting scholars like Folly Bah
Thibault to investigate why coups are part and parcel of political change in
Africa.
Unwillingness to peacefully handover power, failure to name
a successor, ruthless crushing of dissent, economic mismanagement and state
capture by those close to the incumbent are among the reasons why coups are
rampant in Africa.
African leaders are to a large extent obsessed with power,
do not know when to stop, commit countless crimes while in office and delegate
power to their family members much to the disappointment of the military.
While a military takeover maybe far fetched in Zimbabwe, it
is important for President Mugabe to be careful in naming his successor. Any suspicion of unfairness or discrimination on account of
tribalism or factionalism may backfire.
The President needs a maximax approach in arriving at the
solution. (Refer to article titled: "Zim future gloomy as politicians take
too much risk", posted here on 14 February 2016).
There are key stakeholders that need to be consulted among
them the military and the whole security establishment called the Joint
Operations Command that is chaired by Vice President Mnangagwa.
Although Professor Moyo and his associates may suggest that
the President has no business consulting the army, it is impossible to
contemplate that ZANU PF can exist without the army collaborating its efforts
to retain power.
It can only be naive for anyone to believe that the
President has been in power for 37 years without the army giving him crucial
support.
Several army chiefs have been quoted in the media saying
that they would not permit anyone without liberation war credentials to lead
the country.
Several times, the opposition has complained of
intimidation of its supporters by the CIO and army officials such as 'champion
farmers' who maintain a heavy presence in constituencies during election time.
Furthermore, the 2008 electoral defeat of the party for the
first time in its history and the subsequent violent runoff clearly
demonstrated how the army is key in determining who leads the country.
It is therefore an empty talk that the gun does not lead
the pen in Zimbabwean politics.
The role the Zimbabwean army has played in nurturing
President Mugabe's rule can therefore not be overemphasized.
Any successor without the backing of the army will
therefore be rejected, irrespective whether they have liberation war credentials
or not.
Another critical block to consult is the ZANU PF membership
itself, mainly the provincial executives that have been directly elected by the
people.
It is an unfortunate situation that most provincial
executives have been imposed by the politburo, making them unable to control
their provinces.
This is the cause for the votes of no confidences that have
characterized the party recently.
Probabilistically, Vice President Emmerson Mnangagwa has a
high chance to become the next President,having gained support from
businesspeople, students, party activists and the international community.
His only major set back is his karanga origin, that
President Mugabe's close relatives and friends hate with a passion.
It is true that tribalism has played a major role in
determining crucial appointments in both the party and government. A zezuru unconquerable team is itching to have another one
of their own replace President Mugabe at all cost.
They have suggested Defence Minister Sydney Sekeramayi as
the successor.
This is stubborn behaviour to say the least.
While President Mugabe has condemned tribalism several
times even during youth interface rallies, he has failed to rein in his
subjects who continue to hate each other on tribal basis.
It is difficult to accuse the President himself of
tribalism although the on-going succession debate presents him with a very
tricky temptation that could permanently harm his legacy.
Often you hear people say people from this tribe will not
rule while some tribal extremists believe a karanga is unelectable.
This is despite the fact that the people of Zimbabwe have
given President Mugabe overwhelming support without considering whether he was
born in the north, east, west or the south.
Tribal conflicts can not be underestimated as they account
for civil wars in Rwanda, Kenya, Nigeria and in Sudan where the country was
split into two halves; North and South Sudan.
The liberation struggle that was waged against the Smith
regime united all Zimbabweans irrespective of their language diversity and
origins, making the ideals of the struggle
paramount in guiding the nation.
Zimbabweans therefore need to rise above tribalism if the
next President is to be accepted by all.
Other factors to consider include gender issues,
particularly considering if a woman can lead the country at this point in time
and if yes which woman?
First Lady Grace Mugabe can be a potential successor to
President Mugabe if she successfully lands the third Vice President slot that
has been suggested recently.
However, elsewhere where First Ladies have succeeded their
husbands, the situation has been disastrous.
0 comments:
Post a Comment